Africa’s Aviation Sector Poised For Double-Digit Growth In 2026, Says ATTA®

ATTA® - African Travel & Tourism Association’s new White Paper, Africa in the Air, launched (3 March 2026) at ITB Berlin and reveals Africa is experiencing record growth – with international seat capacity up 18.6% year-on-year in 2026.

Drawing on exclusive data from aviation analysts OAG alongside figures from International Air Transport Association (IATA) and UN Tourism, the report highlights how increased airlift is directly fuelling tourism growth across the continent and creating significant opportunities for the travel trade, airlines, investors and governments.

The White Paper has also acknowledged the geopolitical crisis in the Gulf region and whilst the association understands there will be implications in airspace disruption, oil prices, insurance and security costs, also believes the developing African hubs of Addis Ababa, Nairobi, Johannesburg and West African hubs like Casablanca further down the line, will become more strategically important by offering alternative destinations, routes, hubs and resilience.

In the first 10 months of 2026, 182.4 million departure seats have been scheduled across Africa – a 13.7% increase on 2025. International capacity is driving this surge, rising 18.6% year-on-year to 129.5 million seats, while domestic capacity has grown more modestly at 3.3%.

Five key markets are powering the expansion:

• Egypt – 30.9 million seats (+12.6%)
• South Africa – 26.8 million seats (+19.6%)
• Morocco – 22.5 million seats (+21.8%)
• Ethiopia – 17 million seats (+31.2%)
• Kenya – 10.2 million seats (+22.3%)

Eastern Africa is currently the fastest-growing sub-region, with seat capacity up 24.3%, outperforming North and Southern Africa.

The aviation growth builds on Africa’s status as the world’s fastest-growing tourism region in 2025, when the continent recorded 10% growth in international arrivals – double the global average.

Africa Is Back – and Flying

Kgomotso Ramothea, CEO of ATTA®, said:

“With 54 countries spanning 72 latitudes, dramatic landscapes, culture that is rooted in centuries of heritage or dynamic youth scenes and the planet’s most dramatic wildlife, African destinations offer unique and diverse experiences.  While post-Covid, tourism took a while to recover, investment into infrastructure is now combining with the resurgence of visiting friends and relatives, growing business travel demand and a renewed interest in more experiential trave and demand is reinforcing aviation growth across the continent.”

IATA data shows African passenger demand rose 9% in early 2025 – more than double the global figure – with long-term forecasts predicting annual passenger growth of 3.7%, reaching 345 million passengers per annum by 2043.

Europe Leads – but the Americas Offer Untapped Potential

Western Europe remains Africa’s largest source market, with 44.2 million seats scheduled in 2026. North Africa in particular continues to benefit from strong low-cost carrier penetration and liberalised air service agreements.

Morocco’s open skies agreement with the EU has enabled rapid expansion, while Egypt continues to attract substantial European LCC traffic. Meanwhile, South Africa’s counter-seasonal appeal keeps European long-haul carriers committed to capacity growth.

The Middle East is Africa’s second-largest external market with 21.2 million seats scheduled.

However, ATTA® identifies North and South America as high-potential growth markets. Currently, just 1.7 million seats are scheduled from North America and 319,000 from South America in 2026 – figures the association believes can be significantly expanded through strategic collaboration and route development.

Infrastructure Investment Transforming the Landscape

Bishoftu International Airport, Ethiopia

The White Paper highlights a decade of major airport infrastructure development that is reshaping connectivity across Africa with Bishoftu International Airport in Ethiopia - a $12.5 billion development outside Addis Ababa set to open in 2030 with an initial capacity of 60 million passengers, rising to 110 million. The project is partly funded by Ethiopian Airlines, demonstrating a major public-private partnership model.

Agostinho Neto International Airport, Angola

Opened for international operations in 2025, the three-terminal facility has capacity for 15 million passengers annually and positions Angola as one of Africa’s emerging aviation hubs.

Additional upgrades in Morocco, Rwanda and South Africa signal a continent-wide commitment to capacity expansion, modernisation and improved passenger experience.

Aviation Reform Still Required

Despite strong growth, Africa in the Air stresses that structural challenges remain, including high taxation, infrastructure bottlenecks in some markets, limited progress on pan-African open skies implementation and complex visa regimes.

Ramothea emphasised:

“None of these challenges are insurmountable. With coordinated action between governments, airlines and tourism stakeholders, Africa can fully capitalise on its global appeal.

Investment in aviation, visa facilitation and route development must go hand in hand with tourism marketing to sustain long-term growth.”

Business, Sport and Multi-Destination Growth

The report also highlights:

• Expanding business and MICE potential across the continent
• Opportunities created by major sporting events between 2026–2027
• Growing potential for twin- and multi-centre itineraries linking destinations such as Cape Town, Botswana, Victoria Falls and Johannesburg
• Intra-African route development opportunities identified at AviaDev Africa

A Defining Moment for African Aviation

As Africa strengthens its position as the world’s fastest-growing tourism region, ATTA® argues that aviation will be the decisive factor in determining whether the continent can sustain its momentum.

Ramothea concluded:

“If investment in aviation continues alongside progressive visa policies and collaborative marketing, Africa can remain the fastest-growing tourism region well into the future.

This is not just about capacity growth – it is about long-term connectivity, competitiveness and shared prosperity.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:
The full Africa in the Air White Paper is available from ATTA® from 3 March 2026.

Media enquiries: Frances Tuke, [email protected]  / WhatsApp +447415 136001 /Webex +44 203 750 1656.
 

NEW WHITE PAPER QUOTES

 Sven Carlson Aviation managing director Carl Denton has also provided further information: 

Fuel hedging

"A lot of the airlines have hedged already so the risk for them is minimal. All the big airlines will have hedged large amounts of their operations, airlines that haven't hedged will be maybe getting a bit anxious over oil prices for the next few days and weeks."

Ethiopia's hub ambitions.

Denton believes that the latest round of Middle Eastern unrest will impact Dubai more than previously after the emirate was caught up in the fighting for the first time and leavi9ng questions about its safeness as a destination.

While he argues Istanbul Airport could be the main beneficiary of any impact on Dubai's hub traffic, he agrees Ethiopia can benefit too especially if the current fighting becomes a long-running conflict.

Denton says: "All of a sudden those countries in that region impacted by the fighting will be throwing the kitchen sink at ensuring those people in those destinations are looked after.

"There are lot of tourists out there at the moment in places like Dubai and that's going to have a massive impact. They don't want this impacting on them.

"Places like Ethiopia and Istanbul will benefit. Even though Ethiopia is a little bit of a dog leg, if you look at the airspace situation Ukraine was already off limits and now you're getting the whole area in the Middle East expanding as to where you can't fly."

He adds this means east to west flights might suddenly find Ethiopia an attractive hub location, especially if they have already been forced to detour to the south to avoid any Middle Eastern no-fly zones.

"Aircraft are going to have to fly down to the south. I think it's a short term thing and one  would hope this will be done and dusted fairly quickly, if we get into a Ukraine  style situation then you will have to start thinking about how this will impact on the long term."

Positive tourism impact

Denton also believes that the latest outbreak of fighting could prove positive for North African destinations which have previously lost market share to Dubai as it was believed to have been a safer winter-sun destination.

Dubai has become a major holiday destination for European holidaymakers during the winter season - it was a destination where they said every is safe you didn't have to worry but all of a sudden it's gone into the sphere of uncertainty like some of the other North African destinations like Egypt and which have suffered as a result and Dubai has benefitted.

In addition, in response to the ME crisis, Kgomotso Ramothea, CEO of ATTA® said: 

"The latest problems in the Middle East and the impact on aviation shows how important it is that we develop self-sufficient African aviation hubs. In an uncertain world we cannot rely on other regions to have such influence on our aviation sector. The ATTA® White Paper shows that Africa’s developing aviation hubs in Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Johannesburg are proving that Africa is already on the way to providing significant network resilience and they can also provide useful alternatives for airlines looking to re-route both in the short and long term future."