Study on South Africa's Tourism Recovery
A new study by the University of Johannesburg (UJ) and France's Excelia Business School has found that South Africa's post-pandemic tourism recovery remains structurally fragile, with governance deterioration posing a significant long-term risk. Drawing on three decades of trend data, the research shows that inbound tourist spending currently sits at just 55% of pre-2020 levels, and that progress towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is the single greatest driver of recovery – with every 1% improvement in the SDG index projected to generate a 1.67% increase in inbound tourist spending. The study's Combined Good Governance Index (LCGGI) fell to its lowest recorded point of -0.25 in 2023, down sharply from a peak of 0.588 in 1995.
Published on 16 March 2026, the research warns that while South Africa retains strong natural assets and a favourable exchange rate for foreign visitors, worsening governance indicators – including corruption, crime, and political instability – are increasingly factoring into travellers' destination decisions. "We still see a lot of tourists coming, making the choice even if governance is low. However, it's starting to get to a point where people are considering going somewhere else," said Professor Natanya Meyer, acting SARChI Chair in Entrepreneurship Education at UJ. The authors note that the stakes extend well beyond visitor numbers, as inbound tourism remains one of South Africa's most accessible sectors for job creation and entrepreneurship, making governance reform a critical lever for broader economic recovery. This study acts as a proxy for other emerging countries facing similar developmental challenges for their local tourism industries in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source: University of Johannesburg News
