El Niño Set to Drive Drier Conditions Across Southern Africa in 2026/27 Rainy Season
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has released its regional climate outlook for the 2026/27 rainy season, forecasting an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of central and southern Africa. Countries including Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, most of South Africa, Eswatini and Lesotho are expected to experience drier-than-usual conditions from October 2026 through to early 2027, while above-normal rainfall is favoured across eastern DRC, most of Tanzania, northern Malawi and Seychelles. Above-average temperatures are also forecast across most of the region.
The primary driver behind the outlook is a developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific, already established and expected to strengthen to strong or very strong intensity, with peak impact anticipated during the October - November - December 2026 period. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also likely to develop and persist through the same period before weakening in early 2027. The outlook was presented at the Thirty-Third Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), held in Swakopmund, Namibia, from 25 to 28 August 2026. For the tourism industry, the forecast has implications for wildlife and nature-based destinations across the subregion, particularly those dependent on seasonal rainfall patterns for landscape conditions and water availability. Stakeholders are urged to monitor updated country-specific forecasts throughout the season.
Source: SADC
