Great Migration River Crossing Reveals Changing Patterns
Serengeti-Masai Mara Ecosystem – A 24-hour flight delay turned into a spectacular silver lining for travellers and Discover Africa safari experts Alice Lombard and Vihann Van Vyk, who witnessed a Great Migration river crossing firsthand. The Mara River crossing occurred in the Northern Serengeti during a period not typically associated with river crossings, as most normally occur between July and October, peaking in August and September. While rare, it is not impossible to witness a crossing at this time, as some herds naturally straggle behind the main migration.
The seasonal search for water and grazing governs the Great Migration, but its exact timing and routes are becoming increasingly unpredictable. For example, the size of the herd Alice and Vihann witnessed, while substantial, was reportedly nothing compared to the scale of crossings seen during the peak season months.
Alice and Vihann's unexpected viewing highlights how wider climatic changes are directly impacting the herd's movement. Recent years have seen crucial movements happen outside of traditional windows, with herds following early or late rains, leading to less predictable crossings.
Tanzania tour operator, Charles Godwin, says the river crossings over the Mara River of the Serengeti have recently changed their usual patterns.
“...we are witnessing unusual crossing points (with crossing Points 0–4 being dominant) and crossing timings [extending] to mid-November,” explains Godwin. He adds that earlier or later arrivals of the herds in the northern Serengeti are also being observed, with these unusual weather shifts likely due to climate change, which will in turn affect migration patterns.
“We expect more unusual happenings as global warming has affected this natural phenomenon. This is very important for expectation management for our valuable guests yearning for wildlife’s ‘best show on earth’,” says Godwin.
The ability of travellers like Alice and Vihann to witness this drama, which they may have otherwise missed, highlights the resilience and adaptability of the herds. It also underscores the often-rewarding experience of travelling outside of peak seasons, when there are fewer vehicles and less crowding. Alice notes, “The best part about seeing it at this time of the year is that there were only another 5 or 6 vehicles (unlike the peak season).”
Africa Safari Expert at Discover Africa, Susan Veldman, who has over three decades of experience in the travel industry, adds, “The arrivals in the North are later, and the migration season has extended from July into the beginning of November with beautiful river crossings. As the first rains start in mid-November, it turns the Northern Serengeti green, lush and attractive to animals, keeping them in the North a little longer before they start heading south for the calving season."
Navigating Tanzania’s Stability
Recently, Tanzania has also faced significant challenges related to its political climate, as it continues to deal with the aftermath of its worst post-election violence in decades. While the safari regions themselves largely remain peaceful, political unrest and post-election incidents in Tanzania's major urban centres have created global uncertainty and reputational damage.
Coupled with reports of internet blackouts and travel advisories, these events have caused anxiety among international travellers and prompted cancellations.
However, Alice Lombard noted the situation in the safari circuit was controlled:
“It was all quite controlled by the time we arrived. The team who landed the day before went and did site inspections and didn't encounter any issues apart from military checks every now and again. Obviously the unrest was pretty bad. But by the time we landed, it had all blown over.”
A Call for Accountability
Ultimately, the silver lining witnessed by Alice and Vihann is a double-edged sword. The unpredictable crossing patterns – driven in part by climate change – as well as political unrest, place the Great Migration at a critical juncture.
For this ancient spectacle to endure, the industry, authorities, and travellers must move beyond appreciation to accountability, ensuring that ethical, low-impact tourism and robust conservation governance become the bedrock of the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem’s future. The survival of the “greatest show on Earth” depends not on the wildebeest's instinct, but on the foresight of its human custodians.
