ATTA® Research Shows Africa's Air Capacity Outperforming Global Markets Amidst Conflict Disruption
New research published by the African Travel and Tourism Association (ATTA®) to coincide with Africa's Travel Indaba in Durban shows that air travel to Africa continues to grow despite global aviation disruption following the escalation of the Iran conflict on 28 February 2026. While global airlines have reduced worldwide seat capacity by 2.1% in response to airspace disruption, rising fuel costs, and increased insurance premiums, Africa has remained comparatively resilient. Sub-Saharan Africa recorded a modest short-term capacity decline of 2.9% and North Africa 2.1% - significantly less than Western Asia's 10.1% contraction - while year-on-year, North Africa is still up 7.9% and Sub-Saharan Africa up 4.6% against the same period in 2025.
Looking at the broader 2026 outlook, more than 89 million inbound seats are scheduled to Africa from 70 non-African countries, with total inbound capacity forecast to grow 4.4% year-on-year. Europe remains the continent's largest external aviation market, with over 50.7 million inbound seats scheduled, representing 5.6% growth. ATTA® Group CEO Virginia Messina noted that while the conflict has created immediate operational challenges, Africa's skies have remained open, with air capacity up approximately 6% on average year-on-year. She added that members are reporting customers are seeking reassurance but continuing to travel, or postponing rather than cancelling trips - a signal of underlying demand resilience across the continent.